Lies, damned lies, and statistics
Let's break down the ELO ratings in showjumping into three words, NO ONE CARES!
The main reason for no one caring, is no one understands it. It is as simple as that. Technically it is just another way to complicate showjumping for both media and spectators.
What we don't need is the sport to be more complicated. Like when changing the rules for bigger events such as i.e. the Olympic Eventing [which has little to do with normal eventing and nations cup format] "to fit" the Olympic profile.
We also don't need rating systems that make no sense to anybody.
To sell the sport to main stream media and regular people it needs to be simple. It needs to be easy to follow. It also needs to be interesting.
Which means one shouldn't make it more complicated than it already is.
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My only reason to even mention the ELO ratings in the first place is because I was sent a big pressrelease over the weekend, in which they predicted the winner in a certain class.
I was looking at it, reading it, contemplating; shall I publish this thing or not? I decided no too. Mostly cause I personally feel the ELO prediction for a clear, and winning round, is a bit of good old fashioned BS.
But I did break down how well their "template" worked for this particular class.
Out of the total 38 competitors, the favourite to win finished on a humble 25th ranking. After delivering a slow round picking up 4 jumping penalties.
The second hand favourite finished in 3d place. Close enough?!
The home favourite won the class.
The second home favourite finished 9th, after picking up 4 penalties along the way.
The third home favourite finished 16th, also picking up 4 penalties along the way.
Moving on..
What I find more troubling than the "absolute truth" of the ELO ratings is the company behind them.
Don't get me wrong, I love Sam Watson [Irish eventing rider], but it is a private company. Endorsed by the FEI, but still private.
So is HorseTelex with their ISP-ratings, and HippoMundo with their HR-rating. We should also not forget the WBFSH and their rankings.
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Maybe there are more, but these are the ones I am personally aware of. In all there are already a lot of things going on around showjumping, cause that is where the money is.
But showjumping already have over twenty different ranking tables on the official website of the FEI [the international equestrian federation].
Twenty!
Then we have predictions by one company, breeding success by another, also made possible by a third and so on.
Even if people are nerds, and take the time to nerd down into things like these, all the sites have their very own [goal] way to calculate things.
Which mean the end result of ones research will come out the way it's been done on that particular website one ended up visiting in the first place.
In all a bit of a Catch 22 based on lies, damned lies, and statistics..
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Link(s) to things that are mentioned in this article 👇🏻
https://www.hippomundo.com/en/hippomundo-rating-info
